Since a recent update, I’m not sure which, I have been unable to get armourers to buy iron ingots in survival mode when leveling up to apprentice. I gave up trying after well over 10 consecutive fails (<0.01% chance of happening). I then switched to creative and continued trying, in creative I could get the iron trade something like 1/4 times - still below the 50% quoted in the minecraft wiki for Java Edition.
Environment
MacOS Sequoia 15.1
I'm not seeing this behaviour locally, I'm chalking this up to luck