Steps to reproduce the issue:
Set the weather to rain (may not be necessary from further testing)
Equip an elytra and begin flying
Shoot a strong bow shot towards the ground while descending
Expected result:
The trajectory should match up with the actual trajectory
Actual result:
Arrow ends up landing a few blocks away from visual trajectory
Environment
Vanilla Minecraft using the standard launcher on Windows 11
Duplicate of MC-280250.