The predicate test is failing when it should pass and the modifier does not get applied to the item.
recreation:
Give yourself a stone with a custom data component containing flag:{}
/give @s stone[minecraft:custom_data={flag:{}}]
Hold the item in the mainhand and run the following item modifier
/item modify entity @s weapon.mainhand {function:"minecraft:filtered",item_filter:{predicates:{"minecraft:custom_data":{flag:{}}}},modifier:{function:"minecraft:set_custom_data",tag:{successful:{}}}}
Still holding the item run:
/data get entity @s SelectedItem
Expected result:
The item should have the following custom_data component {flag:{},successful:{}}
Actual result:
The item remains unchanged: custom_data is {flag:{}}
Per the changelog: