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MC-173085

99.97% Chance Librarians do not generate Unbreaking III trades in 1st Tier

I cycled through trades with villagers in a naturally generated Taiga village by breaking and placing lecterns in rooms with villagers (usually just one) during working hours, only placing a new lectern if the villager had lost their profession.

I was cycling through trades specifically to get Mending, Silk Touch, Sharpness V, Protection IV, Thorns III, and Unbreaking III. According to my statistics, I mined 1522 lecterns during my attempts to achieve all of the above enchantments.

I also got unbreaking I and unbreaking II 11 times during those 1522 attempts, and although I know that I did see every one of the 37 kinds of enchantments show up at some point, I did not keep a tally of every enchantment that came up to make sure that every level of every other enchantment occurred.

 

Probability calculation: assuming that a librarian has a 2/3 chance of having a 1st tier enchanted book trade, and that enchantment is chosen randomly from the 37 different available enchantments before choosing an enchantment level, and then the level of enchantment is selected randomly, there is a 2/333 probability of Unbreaking III with each trial. Assuming that each trial is an independent Bernoulli trial the p-value of no Unbreaking III after 1522 trials is P=0.00010. Basically, it is very unlikely that this outcome is random chance. 

Now I may have made mistakes in some of these trials (placing a second lectern or not quite waiting long enough for the trade to refresh), so assuming that the trade didn't refresh 10% of the 1522 times a lectern was mined, results in P=0.00026.

Tested in 20w06a in Vanilla Single-Player Survival on seed 7274739946809143114 at various locations near the taiga village at coordinates -1533 1737, with various taiga and plains villagers.

Comments 7

Please check if this is still an issue for you in 1.16 Release Candidate 1 or later.

Was not able to reproduce in 1.16 Release Candidate 1.

After ~1.5h in creative at a naturally generated village placing 543 lectures and tabulating 366 enchantments in excel, I finally got Unbreaking III.

The only enchantments I did not get after 366 measurements were: Bane of Arthropods I, IV, Fire Protection I, III, Protection III, and Sharpness I, but due to the "small" sample size this time, their absences aren't statistically significant.

It could have been resolved, or it could be that I was just incredibly unlucky before.

Tangent: have I mentioned that the enchantment system is too cluttered in vanilla? Why do both Flame and Fire Aspect have to exist? Why are bow and crossbow enchantments separate? Why does Bane of Arthropods exist? For that matter why Impaling?

Can confirm this issue is present in 1.16.4, rolled over 1000 trades and still no unbreaking 3.

Issue is still present in 1.16.5 can only get unbreaking 2 rolled over 1000 trades here too still max i can get is unbreaking 2 and no unbreaking 3.  Can this be looked into or someone with stats?

Issue still present in 1.16.5, I've mined & placed 794 lecterns and haven't gotten Unbreaking III, I've gotten Unbreaking I, & II.

I thought I was really unlucky but at this point I'm pretty sure it's a bug.

I am playing in 1.16.4 difficulty set to hard, it seems like unbreaking 3 has less weight than unbreaking 2 and 1, I mined 1173 lecterns and just got unbreaking 3 for 50 emralds.

Issue still present in 1.17, I've mined & placed 600+ lecterns and haven't gotten Unbreaking III, I've gotten Unbreaking I, & II multiple times.

EDIT It took 764 lecterns to get it.

Abram Thiessen

(Unassigned)

Unconfirmed

(Unassigned)

20w08a

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