The shadow of a minecart will appear centered on the block the rail is on, whereas the minecartt itself appears in the right place.
Testing this with hitboxes active shows the hitbox to also be off by the same amount for the same time, leading me to believe the minecart's rendering is the only aspect which is immediately correct.
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It is not actually just a graphical glitch. If you look in F3+B screen, you will see the minecart is actually in that location where the shadow should is and that is why its shadow appears to be in the wrong location. Perhaps this should be remade as a new issue or reopened? I think Mojang thought it was purely visual and wouldn't fix it for that reason, but since it is actually a location issue... ? (This was in 1.16.5 by the way.)
Confirmed in 20w28a